Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
